Early Termination

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(Current ET Rates)
(Current ET Rates)
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*'''PCVs/Ts''' : all Peace Corps Volunteers on Duty in FY2008
*'''PCVs/Ts''' : all Peace Corps Volunteers on Duty in FY2008
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*'''ET''': Early Terminations
+
*'''ET''': Early Terminations (RS+MD+AD+IS)
*'''RS''': Resignations
*'''RS''': Resignations
*'''MD''': Medical Separations
*'''MD''': Medical Separations
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*'''RS/ET %''' : Percent of Early Terminations that were resignations
*'''RS/ET %''' : Percent of Early Terminations that were resignations
*'''Annual ET%''': ET rate currently used by Peace Corps
*'''Annual ET%''': ET rate currently used by Peace Corps
-
*'''Cohort ET%''': Estimated Cohort Rate ("Out of 100 volunteers...") [http://www.peacecorpswiki.org/reports/ETReport_Supplement.pdf ]
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*'''Cohort ET%''': Estimated Cohort Rate ("Out of 100 volunteers") [http://www.peacecorpswiki.org/reports/ETReport_Supplement.pdf ]
<big>'''FY 2008'''</big>
<big>'''FY 2008'''</big>

Revision as of 20:32, 8 August 2009

Contents

Peace Corps Manual Section 284 establishes the policies and procedures governing the circumstances under which a Peace Corps Volunteer's service may end prior to the completion of service date. An ET occurs when Volunteer "cannot or should not remain in service until his or her completion of service (COS) date." The most current report available is the FY 2007 Quantitative Early Termination Report. Currently, out of 100 volunteers who begin their service, about 35 will Early Terminate sometime before their completion of service. (Source: "Early Termination in the Peace Corps", Appendix A )

There are four types of early termination:

Rough Estimate

A back-of-the-envelope calculation can be done as follows: Peace Corps currently accepts about 5,000 volunteers per year. If no volunteer leaves early then after 27 months a total of 11,250 volunteers should be serving right now (27 months * 5,000 per year) - from those volunteers just beginning service to those just ending. Any volunteers who ETed during that time would make the number smaller. If 10% of the volunteers have ETed then the 11,250 number would be 10% less; if 50% ETed then the 11,250 number would be half, etc. According to the Peace Corps website there are currently 7,500 volunteers serving around the world right now. This means about 3,750 volunteers out of the 11,250 total possible have Early Terminated, equaling 33%. (3,750 volunteers who ETed out of 11,250 total) This is consistent with more precise estimates.

Determining ET Rates

Before 1981, Peace Corps used the V Year method, standing for 'Volunteer-Year'. It is the number of ET's by an average volunteer during one year of service. Since most volunteers successfully complete their service, which is longer than one year, this number would be a "fraction of an ET". If the V-Year ET Rate was 0.20 (per year) we would expect about 2 volunteers out of 10 to ET per year, or about 1 volunteer out of 10 in a six-month period.

In 1981, at the request of the General Accounting Office, the agency's Office of Special Service began to report Volunteer attrition, using the Cohort Method. This method addresses the question: 'If X number of people enter Peace Corps service during a given time period, how many actually complete their service?"

A cohort is defined as all trainees who enter on duty during a Fiscal Year (i.e. the Class of FY90), and the cohort attrition rate as the percent of Volunteers and Trainees within a cohort who do not complete service (e.g. 29% of the Class of FY90 did not complete service). Cohort attrition is also referred to as 'class of' attrition rate (where 'class of' refers to all trainees entering on duty during a Fiscal Year).

Cohort ET Rates tend to be at least double the ET reported by posts using the V Year chart method. While these latter rates (V-Year) are essential for budget calculations purposes, they provide an incomplete picture of overall attrition. Unlike the V Year chart method used by posts to calculate T and V ET Rates, the cohort method provides a complete picture of attrition because it follows people over their full tour (meaning, for most Volunteers, a 24 to 27 month period).

In the early 2000's, Peace Corps switched formulas to an Annual Method in reported ET data. The 'ET Rate' using the annual method is the number of PCVs/Ts who separated from the Peace Corps during the fiscal year divided by the total number of trainees and volunteers who served at any time during the fiscal year. Thus, an individual who served for one day and another individual who served for the full fiscal year are counted equally for the denominator of the fraction. This method addresses the question: 'Of the n total number of individuals who served at any time during a given time 12-month period, how many early terminate in that same time span?"

Because the different methods in reporting ET data use different data and calculations, care must be taken so as not to inappropriately compare the two. As the Cohort Method spans over a twenty-seven month period (or more) while the Annual method is strictly a twelve-month period, the results do not lend to comparability.

Comparison Between Methods

V Year Cohort Method Annual Method
before 1981 1981 - early 2000s used currently
roughly half of Cohort value "complete picture of attrition" roughly half to a third of Cohort Value
n/a FY 1990: 29% ET Rate FY 1990: 13% ET Rate
n/a Meaning: 29% of all volunteers who
entered service in FY 1990 ET'ed
sometime before their COS date
Meaning: 13% of all volunteers who
served any portion of the fiscal year
of 1990 ET'ed within that year


This graphic demonstrates the difference between calculating ET Rates by the Cohort and Annual Methods.


Converting Between Methods

Since an exact conversion can only be made with raw data, the following will be an approximate conversion between the two methods based on the following assumptions:

These assumptions make every cohort identical and every year identical. While it may be an idealized model, for its simplicity it gives a reasonably accurate conversion from one method to the other.

ANNUAL 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
COHORT 3.2% 6.4% 9.4% 12.4% 15.4% 18.3% 21.1% 23.9% 26.6% 29.2%
ANNUAL 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20%
COHORT 31.8% 34.4% 36.9% 39.3% 41.7% 44.1% 46.4% 48.6% 50.9% 53.1%


Roughly, for every 2% away from 10% the Annual Method is the Cohort method will be 5% away from 30%. For more information on the derivation of the conversation chart presented here, see the report Annual and Cohort Early Termination Rates


Current ET Rates

The chart is fully sortable, by clicking on the tabs on the top row. Clicking it once will sort that column in ascending order, while clicking it again sorts it in descending order.

FY 2008

Country
PCVs/Ts
ET
RS
MD
AD
IS
RS/ET %
Annual ET%
Cohort ET% (est)
WORLD 12029 1286 1031 205 3 47 80.2% 10.7% 31%
Africa 4577 490 404 67 2 17 82.4% 10.7% 31.1%
IAP 3885 425 330 78 1 16 77.6% 10.9% 31.7%
EMA 3567 371 297 60 0 14 80.1% 10.4% 30.3%
Albania 118 15 13 2 0 0 86.7% 12.7% 36.1%
Armenia 133 18 16 2 0 0 88.9% 13.5% 38.2%
Azerbaijan 148 9 6 2 0 1 66.7% 6.1% 18.5%
Belize 109 15 14 1 0 0 93.3% 13.8% 38.7%
Benin 170 32 31 1 0 0 96.9% 18.8% 50.5%
Bolivia 184 19 16 3 0 0 84.2% 10.3% 30.1%
Botswana 141 15 12 3 0 0 80% 10.6% 30.9%
Bulgaria 226 15 13 2 0 0 86.7% 6.6% 20.1%
Burkina Faso 156 24 21 3 0 0 87.5% 15.4% 42.6%
Cambodia 64 7 6 1 0 0 85.7% 10.9% 31.7%
Cameroon 227 23 17 3 0 3 73.9% 10.1% 29.6%
Cape Verde 83 7 6 1 0 0 85.7% 8.4% 25%
China 153 7 5 2 0 0 71.4% 4.6% 14.1%
Costa Rica 152 25 22 3 0 0 88% 16.4% 45.1%
Dominican Republic 282 28 26 2 0 0 92.9% 9.9% 29%
Eastern Caribbean 170 27 23 3 0 1 85.2% 15.9% 43.8%
Ecuador 231 37 32 5 0 0 86.5% 16% 44.1%
El Salvador 233 27 21 6 0 0 77.8% 11.6% 33.3%
Ethiopia 43 12 8 3 0 1 66.7% 27.9% 69%
Fiji 84 8 6 1 0 1 75% 9.5% 28%
Gambia, The 155 22 19 3 0 0 86.4% 14.2% 39.8%
Georgia 120 22 17 1 0 4 77.3% 18.3% 49.4%
Ghana 265 38 33 3 0 2 86.8% 14.3% 40.1%
Guatemala 284 17 9 6 1 1 52.9% 6% 18.2%
Guinea 79 9 7 2 0 0 77.8% 11.4% 32.8%
Guyana 76 14 13 1 0 0 92.9% 18.4% 49.6%
Honduras 289 31 21 8 0 2 67.7% 10.7% 31.1%
Jamaica 156 29 22 3 0 4 75.9% 18.6% 50%
Jordan 100 19 15 4 0 0 78.9% 19% 50.9%
Kazakhstan 203 23 22 1 0 0 95.7% 11.3% 32.7%
Kenya 193 14 10 1 0 3 71.4% 7.3% 21.8%
Kiribati 18 4 2 0 0 2 50% 22.2% 57.8%
Kyrgyzstan 198 42 36 3 0 3 85.7% 21.2% 55.7%
Lesotho 133 8 7 1 0 0 87.5% 6% 18.3%
Macedonia 152 15 9 4 0 2 60% 9.9% 28.9%
Madagascar 217 24 20 3 0 1 83.3% 11.1% 32%
Malawi 188 16 12 3 0 1 75% 8.5% 25.2%
Mali 220 20 19 1 0 0 95% 9.1% 26.8%
Mauritania 184 12 11 1 0 0 91.7% 6.5% 19.7%
Mexico 75 8 7 1 0 0 87.5% 10.7% 31%
Micronesia 109 11 8 2 0 1 72.7% 10.1% 29.5%
Moldova 207 22 19 2 0 1 86.4% 10.6% 30.9%
Mongolia 161 17 13 4 0 0 76.5% 10.6% 30.7%
Morocco 353 36 26 10 0 0 72.2% 10.2% 29.7%
Mozambique 221 17 12 5 0 0 70.6% 7.7% 23%
Namibia 181 11 10 1 0 0 90.9% 6.1% 18.5%
Nicaragua 294 24 17 7 0 0 70.8% 8.2% 24.3%
Niger 209 41 29 6 2 4 70.7% 19.6% 52.2%
Panama 249 19 11 8 0 0 57.9% 7.6% 22.8%
Paraguay 274 11 9 2 0 0 81.8% 4% 12.5%
Peru 252 16 13 3 0 0 81.3% 6.3% 19.3%
Philippines 200 11 6 4 0 1 54.5% 5.5% 16.8%
Romania 223 19 17 2 0 0 89.5% 8.5% 25.3%
Samoa 77 15 12 3 0 0 80% 19.5% 51.9%
Senegal 258 19 17 2 0 0 89.5% 7.4% 22.1%
South Africa 248 30 26 4 0 0 86.7% 12.1% 34.6%
Suriname 70 14 9 2 0 3 64.3% 20% 53.1%
Swaziland 77 8 6 2 0 0 75% 10.4% 30.2%
Tanzania 249 19 16 2 0 1 84.2% 7.6% 22.8%
Thailand 162 18 15 3 0 0 83.3% 11.1% 32.1%
Togo 208 23 20 3 0 0 87% 11.1% 32%
Tonga 65 10 6 3 0 1 60% 15.4% 42.6%
Turkmenistan 135 11 8 3 0 0 72.7% 8.1% 24.3%
Uganda 197 22 15 7 0 0 68.2% 11.2% 32.2%
Ukraine 511 45 35 8 0 2 77.8% 8.8% 26%
Vanuatu 152 16 11 5 0 0 68.8% 10.5% 30.6%
Zambia 275 24 20 3 0 1 83.3% 8.7% 25.8%

Source: FY 2008 ET Data Summary obtained through the FOIA

Historical ET Rates

Historical ET Rates depends on which formula you used in calculating them. Prior to 2000 Peace Corps used the Cohort Method in calculating ET Rates, and Historical ET Rates were reported using the same method. Since then, Peace Corps has switched to the Annual Method and recently published Historical ET Rates have presented data to correspond to the current method.

This graphic shows Historical ET Rates (up to 1994) using the Cohort Method
This graphic shows Historical ET Rates (up to 2004) using the Annual Method
The Historical ET Rate using the Cohort Method. A cohort is defined as all trainees who enter on duty during a Fiscal Year (i.e. the Class of FY90) and the cohort attrition rate as the percent of Volunteers and Trainees within a cohort who do not complete service.
Example: 29% of all volunteers who entered service in FY 1990 ET'ed sometime before their COS date.
The Historical ET Rate using the Annual Method is the number of PCVs/Ts who separated from the Peace Corps during the fiscal year divided by the total number of trainees and volunteers who served at any time during the fiscal year.
Example: 13% of all volunteers who served any portion of FY 1990 ET'ed within that year


Source: A science of the South Pacific: Analysis of the character structure of the Peace Corps volunteer. Harris, Jesse G. American Psychologist. Vol 28(3), Mar 1973, 232-247.

Reports

Because the different methods in reporting ET data use different data and calculations, care must be taken so as not to inappropriately compare the two. As the Cohort Method spans over a twenty-seven month period (or more) while the Annual method is strictly a twelve-month period, the results do not lend to comparability. Care must be taken in comparing ET Rates reported from documents using different formulas for measuring ET Rates.


Reports using the Annual Method


Reports using both the Annual Method and Cohort Method


Reports using the Cohort Method


(Note: All documents were obtained from Peace Corps, by request, using the Freedom of Information Act and are in public domain)

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