Difference between pages "Model" and "Monika de Vries- Nigeria"

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<html><head></head><body>
+
{{Volunteerinfobox
 
+
|firstname=Monika
<center><b>The following is based on a probabilistic model and should be taken as estimates only.</b></center><br>
+
|middlename=Barbel
Given <u><b>two</b></u> quantities the program will try and estimate the remaining numbers.<br>All values should be entered as numerical symbols only ("1234" instead of "1,234")<br>
+
|lastname=de Vries
<br>
+
|country=Nigeria
<form id="model" action="form_action.asp" name="model">
+
|yearservicestarted=1965
<table border="0">
+
|yearserviceended=1967
 
+
|site=Benin City
<tr>
+
|region=Mid west
<td></td>
+
|state=New_York
<td></td>
+
|uscity=New York City
<td width="100"></td>
+
|program=Education
<td colspan="4"><center><i><b>Actual Numbers</b> (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">FY2009</a>) <br><small>(as suggested starting points)</small></i></center></td>
+
|assignment01=Primary Teacher/Training
</tr>
+
}}
 
+
Served as trainer in the Anglican Teacher Training College in Benin City - the Arts and Crafts category - tried to instruct students (who'd been teachers before) in how to make their lessons a bit more interesting to their young students by adding instructions in crafts and drawing. However, the Ministry of Education did not require my students to pass an examination after taking my class, so there was very little interest in attending. Then the war broke out between the Northern Hausa and the Eastern people and I heard later that many of my students were killed in the war.
 
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Number of Volunteers in the past year...</b></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td width="50"><center>Worldwide</center></td>
+
<td width="50"><center>Africa</center></td>
+
<td width="50"><center>EMA</center></td>
+
<td width="50"><center>IMA</center></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td><i>Entered Service</i></td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="r" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Finished Service (COS)</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="s" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Early Terminated (ET)</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="e" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>1155</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>406</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>382</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>367</i></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Currently Serving</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="c" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>TOTAL served any part of year</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="n" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>11549</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>4365</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>3494</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>3690</i></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Rate of Early Termination:</b></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Cohort Method</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="p" value="" />%</td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Annual Method</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="a" value="" />%</td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>10.0%</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>9.3%</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>10.9%</i></td>
+
<td align="right"><i>9.9%</i></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Volunteer-Year Method</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="v" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Statistics:</b></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
<tr>
+
<td>Average length of service (months)</td>
+
<td><input type="text" name="L" value="" /></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
 
+
</table>
+
<br><br>
+
<center><input type="button" name="calc" value="Calculate" onclick=calcForm()>
+
<input type="button" value="Clear" onClick="this.form.reset()" /> </center>
+
</form>
+
 
+
<br>
+
<b>Definitions:</b><br>
+
<br>
+
<table border="1" width=100%>
+
<tr>
+
<td WIDTH="200"><b>Entered Service</b></td>
+
<td>Number of volunteers who entered service within the past year</td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Finished Service (COS)</b></td>
+
<td>Number of volunteers who successfully completed a full service (COS) within the past year</td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Early Terminated (ET)</b></td>
+
<td>Number of volunteers who early terminated their service within the past year. <i><small>[FY2009 Actual value: 1,155 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Currently Serving</b></td>
+
<td>The average number of currently serving volunteers and trainees at any moment in time. <i><small>[26May2010 Actual value: 7,340 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/PCVStats26May2010.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>TOTAL served any part of year</b></td>
+
<td>The number of volunteers and trainees that served any portion of the year under study <i><small>[FY2009 Actual Value: 11,549 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Cohort Method</b></td>
+
<td><i>("Out of 100")</i> Equivalent to the probability of a randomly selected volunteer Early Terminating sometime within their service.</td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Annual Method</b></td>
+
<td><i>(current method used by Peace Corps)</i> The number of PCVs/Ts who separated from the Peace Corps during the fiscal year divided by the total number of trainees and volunteers who served at any time during the fiscal year. (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/Early_Termination">Ref.</a>)<i><small>
+
[FY2009 Actual Value: 10.0% (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Volunteer-Year Method<br><i>(as decimal)</i></b></td>
+
<td>The number of ET's by an average volunteer during one year of service. Since most volunteers successfully complete their service, which is longer than one year, this number would be a "fraction of an ET". If the V-Year ET Rate was 0.20 (per year) we would expect about 2 volunteers out of 10 to ET per year, or about 1 volunteer out of 10 in a six-month period. (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/Early_Termination">Ref.</a>)</td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td><b>Average length of service<br><i>(months)</i></b></td>
+
<td>Average length of service among all volunteers (in months)</td>
+
</tr>
+
</table>
+
<br>
+
Note: [TOTAL served any part of year] = [Finished Service (COS)] + [Early Terminated (ET)] + [Currently Serving]<br>
+
The volunteers who [Entered Service] are already counted in one of three categories as during that year they have either COSed, ETed, or are still currently serving.
+
<br>
+
<br>
+
<i>The above probabilistic model of Peace Corps was developed by Michael Sheppard (RPCV / The Gambia), and it should be taken as an estimate only</i>
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
<script language="JavaScript">
+
 
+
function calcForm() {
+
  var elements = document.model.elements;
+
 
+
  //Convert rates to decimals
+
  if (elements[5].value!="") {
+
  elements[5].value=1.0*elements[5].value/100;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[6].value!="") {
+
  elements[6].value=1.0*elements[6].value/100;
+
  }
+
  // v is decimal, by definition; while p and a are percentages
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
  //Compute all variables possible by continuously looping through the formulas
+
  var ind=1;
+
  while (ind==1) {
+
  //Initialize to zero, and set equal to one if any new variables are computed
+
  ind=0;
+
 
+
  //Order of priority, first solve for a,p,v if known
+
 
+
  //Equation : 26a=9ap+8p  (a 6, p 5)
+
  //Unknown  : a (6)
+
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[5].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[6].value = (8.0*elements[5].value) / (26.0 - (9.0*elements[5].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 26a=9ap+8p  (a 6, p 5)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5].value = (26.0*elements[6].value) / (8.0 + (9.0*elements[6].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 18v=9av+26a (a 6 , v 7)
+
  //Unknown  : a (6)
+
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[6].value = (18.0*elements[7].value) / (26.0 + (9.0*elements[7].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 18v=9av+26a (a 6 , v 7)
+
  //Unknown  : v (7)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[7].value = (26.0*elements[6].value) / (18.0 - (9.0*elements[6].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 18v=9pv+8p (v 7, p 5)
+
  //Unknown  : v (7)
+
  if (elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[7].value = (8.0*elements[5].value) / (18.0 - (9.0*elements[5].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 18v=9pv+8p (v 7, p 5)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[5].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5].value = (18.0*elements[7].value) / (8.0 - (9.0*elements[7].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
 
+
  //IF P=0 (OR EQUIVALENT) LOOP THROUGH NON-DIVISION ESTIMATION
+
  if (elements[5].value!="" && 1.0*elements[5].value==0) {
+
  //If exist and is zero
+
  document.model.elements[2].value = 0;
+
  var ind2=1;
+
  while (ind2==1) {
+
  //Initialize to zero, and set equal to one if any new variables are computed
+
  ind2=0;
+
  if (elements[3].value=="" && elements[4].value!="") {
+
    document.model.elements[3].value = 18.0*elements[4].value / 26;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[4].value=="") {
+
    document.model.elements[4].value = 26.0*elements[3].value / 18;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[4].value!="") {
+
    document.model.elements[0].value = 8.0*elements[4].value / 26;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[4].value=="") {
+
    document.model.elements[4].value = 26.0*elements[0].value / 8;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[3].value!="") {
+
    document.model.elements[0].value =  8.0*elements[3].value / 18;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value=="") {
+
    document.model.elements[3].value = 18.0*elements[0].value / 8;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[1].value!="") {
+
    document.model.elements[0].value =  elements[1].value;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value=="") {
+
    document.model.elements[1].value = elements[0].value;
+
    ind2=1;
+
  }
+
  } //While
+
  } //If for zero
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
+
  //Unknown  : a (6)
+
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[4].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[6].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[4].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
+
  //Unknown  : n (4)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[4].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[4].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[6].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
+
  //Unknown  : e (2)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[4].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[6].value) * (1.0*elements[4].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
+
  //Unknown  : r (0)
+
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[5].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[0].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
+
  //Unknown  : e (2)
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) * (1.0*elements[5].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
+
  //Unknown  : c (3)
+
  if (elements[3].value=="" && elements[7].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[3].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[7].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
+
  //Unknown  : v (7)
+
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[7].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[7].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[3].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
+
  //Unknown  : e (2)
+
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[7].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[3].value) * (1.0*elements[7].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
+
  //Unknown  : n (4)
+
  if (elements[4].value=="" && elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[4].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) + (1.0*elements[3].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
+
  //Unknown  : r (0)
+
  if (elements[4].value!="" && elements[0].value=="" && elements[3].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[4].value) - (1.0*elements[3].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
+
  //Unknown  : c (3)
+
  if (elements[4].value!="" && elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[3].value = (1.0*elements[4].value) - (1.0*elements[0].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
+
  //Unknown  : r (0)
+
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[1].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[1].value) + (1.0*elements[2].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
+
  //Unknown  : s (1)
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[1].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) - (1.0*elements[2].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
+
  //Unknown  : e (2)
+
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) - (1.0*elements[1].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 2L+27p=54 (8,5)
+
  //Unknown  : L (8)
+
  if (elements[8].value=="" && elements[5].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[8].value = (54.0 - (27.0*elements[5].value)) / 2.0;
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : 2L+27p=54 (8,5)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[8].value!="" && elements[5].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5].value = (54.0 - (2.0*elements[8].value)) / 27.0;
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
+
  //Unknown  : a (6)
+
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[6].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[5].value)) + (1/(1.0*elements[7].value)));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[6].value)) - (1/(1.0*elements[7].value)));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
+
  //Unknown  : v (7)
+
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[7].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[6].value)) - (1/(1.0*elements[5].value)));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
+
  //Unknown  : s (1)
+
  if (elements[1].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[0].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[1].value=(1-(1.0*elements[5].value))*(1.0*elements[0].value);
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
+
  //Unknown  : p (5)
+
  if (elements[1].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[0].value!="") {
+
  document.model.elements[5]=1-((1.0*elements[1].value)/(1.0*elements[0].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
+
  //Unknown  : r (0)
+
  if (elements[1].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[0].value=="") {
+
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[1].value) / (1-(1.0*elements[5].value));
+
  ind=1;
+
  }
+
  } // While loop
+
 
+
//Now that while loop is completed format all answers
+
if (elements[0].value!="")  document.model.elements[0].value=Math.round(elements[0].value);
+
if (elements[1].value!="")  document.model.elements[1].value=Math.round(elements[1].value);
+
if (elements[2].value!="")  document.model.elements[2].value=Math.round(elements[2].value);
+
if (elements[3].value!="")  document.model.elements[3].value=Math.round(elements[3].value);
+
if (elements[4].value!="")  document.model.elements[4].value=Math.round(elements[4].value);
+
if (elements[5].value!="")  document.model.elements[5].value=Math.round(1000*elements[5].value)/10;
+
if (elements[6].value!="")  document.model.elements[6].value=Math.round(1000*elements[6].value)/10;
+
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[[Category:resources]]
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Latest revision as of 11:57, 21 May 2014



{{#if:Monika|Firstname::Monika|}} {{#if:Barbel|Middlename::Barbel|}} {{#if:de Vries|Lastname::de Vries|}}{{#if:Nigeria||}}

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{{{flickr}}}|}}{{#if:|
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Program(s)|}} Served in sector::Education|}}{{#if:|,[[Served in sector::{{{program2}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Served in sector::{{{program3}}}]]|}}
Assignment(s)|}} Primary assignment was::Primary Teacher/Training|}}{{#if:|,[[Primary assignment was::{{{assignment02}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Primary assignment was::{{{assignment03}}}]]|}}
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{{#if:1965|Volunteer name was::Monika de Vries|}} {{#if:1965|started in Nigeria 1965|}}
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{{#if:Mid west|Region: Mid west|}}
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Don't see yourself, Add yourself or a friend!

Enter your first and last name{{#forminput:Volunteer}}

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{{#if:|You located yourself at based on your site: Benin City {{#if:{{#geocode:Benin City,Nigeria}}|[[Location Coordinates::{{#geocode:Benin City,Nigeria}}]]}} }}

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{{#if:1965||}} {{#if:1965||}} {{#if:1965||}} {{#if:Benin City||}} {{#if:|[[category:]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:]]|}} {{#if:Mid west||}} {{#if:|[[category:]]|}} {{#if:||}} {{#if:||}} {{#if:|[[category:]]|}} {{#if:Education||}} {{#if:|[[category:Nigeria_{{{program2}}}]]|}} {{#if:Education||}} {{#if:|[[category:{{{program2}}}]]|}} {{#if:Primary Teacher/Training||}} {{#if:|[[category:Nigeria_{{{assignment02}}}]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:Nigeria_{{{assignment03}}}]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:Nigeria_{{{assignment04}}}]]|}} {{#if:Primary Teacher/Training||}} {{#if:|[[category:{{{assignment02}}}]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:{{{assignment03}}}]]|}} {{#if:|[[category:{{{assignment04}}}]]|}}

Served as a trainer in the Anglican Teacher Training College in Benin City - the Arts and Crafts category - tried to instruct students (who'd been teachers before) in how to make their lessons a bit more interesting to their young students by adding instructions in crafts and drawing. However, the Ministry of Education did not require my students to pass an examination after taking my class, so there was very little interest in attending. Then the war broke out between the Northern Hausa and the Eastern people and I heard later that many of my students were killed in the war.